Quotes of the Day

Meet the woman of the year: white, high school–educated and probably on the north side of age 50, she is getting the worst of a bad economy. She's worrying about whether her daughter will be able to afford college and her father his medicine. Her husband can barely afford the gasoline it takes to get back and forth to a job he's in danger of losing — and with it, their health insurance. She's getting her hair cut less often and sometimes has to put her utility bill on her Visa. She's the woman doing the laundry at 11 p.m. because it's the first chance she's had all day to do it. So it's no surprise that she hasn't yet gotten around to settling on Barack Obama or John McCain — but how she votes may well determine the outcome of the election.

She is, in short, a woman who might have a few things in common with Lori Stern, an administrative assistant in Des Moines, Iowa, who lost her second job at a coffee shop when it closed. Stern went to her state's Republican caucuses in January, listened and left without voting. She still hasn't made up her mind, though she's now leaning toward Obama. "I'm very aware of what's going on and have paid attention, but I find it really hard to be trustful of politicians in general," she says. That sentiment is echoed by Beth Seidel, a factory worker in Cleveland who works the third shift so she can take her son to school and then to practices for the four sports he plays. Pausing recently at a Wal-Mart, she said, "Honestly, I don't know what to do. I really don't want to vote for McCain. You can tell he only cares about rich people. Sarah Palin wears glasses that cost $300. McCain's wife wears Gucci clothes. Which means they don't know anything about people like me." Into that stew of assumptions, she adds, "I hear that Obama's a Muslim. If he is a Muslim, that would be a problem, because the terrorists already attacked us." (He's not.)

Their profiles change from campaign to campaign, but women like Stern and Seidel have been deciding U.S. elections for years. In 1996 they were the "soccer moms" Bill Clinton captured to win re-election. After 9/11, they morphed into the "security moms" who helped give George W. Bush a second term. Four years later, they are a little older, and their anxieties have multiplied. Their numbers are enormous: they typically account for as much as 12% of the electorate. The two campaigns are referring to them as Wal-Mart moms, but a better name might be maxed-out moms.

More pragmatic than partisan, "non-college-educated white women are the ultimate swing voters and the ultimate late deciders," says Mary Beth Cahill, who was John Kerry's 2004 campaign manager. "They swing back and forth with every new piece of information." In the Democratic primaries, they came out in force for Hillary Clinton. Many say they wish Obama had put her on the ticket, but on the issues, they still tilt toward the Democrats. Given their worries about the direction of the country, their low regard for the current occupant of the White House and the fact that women voters normally trend more Democratic than men do, Obama has some reason to believe he should carry the maxed-out-mom vote in the general election.

At the moment, however, McCain seems to be winning them handily — which is a big reason for the growing nervousness among the Democratic rank and file. A new TIME poll, conducted Sept. 11-15, shows Obama and McCain running a dead heat among women overall. But McCain holds an 18-point lead among older, less-educated likely women voters. "Frankly, it's because they are conflicted on Obama," says pollster Geoff Garin, who served as the chief strategist for Clinton's campaign in its final days. "They'd like to vote for a Democrat, but they are not sure Obama is the one."

Part of it is that many maxed-out moms are older than Obama, which makes them more skeptical that he has the experience he needs to do the job. Many are more culturally conservative than he is, and they are more likely than their younger sisters to be what Democratic pollster Celinda Lake delicately describes as "racially sensitive." What's more, says Garin, Obama's mantra of change is not so appealing to a group that is already trying to come to grips with all the changes upending their lives. "He's a little too vague for me," says Cathy Hayworth, a Bondurant, Iowa, mother of four who cleans houses for a living. "What exactly are those changes?" Deb Anderson, a barber from Urbandale, Iowa, says, "I know we need change, and maybe he can really do it and make a difference like Martin Luther King. But I'm just torn ... He almost seems too good to be true."

Meanwhile, McCain's surprising pick of a hockey-mom governor to share his ticket has grabbed maxed-out moms' attention. "They see their lives reflected in hers," says a top McCain strategist. "She is a person who leads a life they lead." In the TIME poll, 68% of older, non-college-educated women expressed a favorable opinion of her. "I do like Palin. I think she's going to win the election for McCain," says Kim Kalin, 49, a supervisor at a small manufacturing plant, who lives in Sterling Heights, Mich. But for other women, Palin has only added to the confusion. "I was for Obama, but that Sarah Palin gives a good speech," says Vivian Healey, 75, who works four days a week at her son's restaurant in Warren, Mich. "But I don't think she always gives a straight answer. But then, none of them do. I don't know how I'm going to decide."

Things may get clearer as moderate women voters get to know Palin better. "When they see a woman on the ticket, the initial reaction is, Good for her," says Ellen Malcolm, the head of EMILY's List, which works to elect pro-choice Democratic women. "But as they start focusing on the issues, they will see Sarah Palin is out of step." Nearly 7 in 10 of the women TIME polled disagreed with Palin's suggestion that humans are not responsible for global warming; two-thirds took exception to her opposition to abortion in all circumstances except when the life of the mother is in danger; and a majority did not share her support of the Iraq war. What's more, they overwhelmingly — 54% vs. 37% — say Joe Biden is better prepared than Palin to take over as President. "At the end of the day, this is going to be about Obama and McCain and change," says one top Obama aide. "The novelty of Sarah Palin will wear off."

But Obama can't afford to wait. Since the Palin pick, the Obama campaign has stepped up its game with all female voters. During the Republican Convention, Obama's team was running radio ads and sending out direct mail on the abortion issue in swing states. It is dispatching more of its most prominent female supporters — including Clinton — to campaign for Obama and argue his case on the airwaves. In Pennsylvania the Obama field operation put together a "Take Your Daughter to Canvass" day; in Florida it was organizing one of Obama's trademark megarallies specifically for women, offering tickets to sororities, breast-cancer organizations, Planned Parenthood, teachers organizations and nurses groups. Meanwhile, both campaigns are spending heavily on reaching these women over the airwaves. According to the New York Times, Oprah is getting more political advertising than any other non-news show, with McCain buying more spots in the past month than Obama — despite the fact that it was Obama who got the endorsement of the show's star. Both candidates know there are women out there just like Deb Anderson in Urbandale, Iowa: "I'm going to keep watching and just see what happens," she says. "Things change so much."

— With reporting by Christopher Maag / Cleveland; Betsy Rubiner / Des Moines, Iowa; Caitlin Sullivan / Troutdale, Va.; and Joseph R. Szczesny / Warren, Mich.

(See a gallery of campaign gaffes here.)

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